Copenhagen Marathon에볼루션

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The annual에볼루is May 18th this year. I have decided that this year, I will give it a go. I haven’t really prepared for it or anything, but I figure sheer willpower should be enough…

Are you now thinking something along these lines: “Wow, he must be out of his mind if he thinks he can prepare for a 42km run in little over a month.”?

Well, I can only reply: RUN?!?!? Are you kidding me? I can’t run 5km without lying prone for 2 weeks afterwards with severely aggrevated achilles tendons. I couldn’t run 20 if my life depended on it, much less 42.

No sir, the plan is to do a poker challenge that puts no unreasonable demands on my limited physical abilities, time it roughly around the time all those crazed lunatics run around Copenhagen for hours and hours, and then just steal their name! Brilliant if you ask me, and a good opportunity to test the limits of how much online poker it is possible to play in an extended period of time.

Copenhagen Poker Marathon starts for me Monday May 11th, and lasts the whole week through Sunday. How hard I should challenge myself is still undecided. I am wavering between 50-70,000 hands in a week. 70k sounds cool (10k/day), but I am not sure it is realistic. At least it would demand a fairly big sacrifice, about a hundred hours staring at 8 tables, which may be too much. I am fairly certain I could do 50k without going mad. An essential part of the challenge for me is that I should maintain a high level of play. I should not have to move down in buy-in levels to complete the challenge unless my normal level is unavailable in the number of tables required. That means maintaining a decent hourly rate at 8 tables of 1000NL for at least 10 hours a day, probably more.

In any case, it should be a rich opportunity for prop bets, let me know if you want action. I will keep you updated on this blog as the event comes further along.

There was a comment to my last post, about whether or not villain should call my push knowing that he was splitting the pot, or losing it to a possible flush. It seemed wrong to me to fold the nuts with these stack sizes, but it is a situation where it is easy to calculate the correct action.

Let’s put ourselves in his position. We know we both have the ace high straight, and that we are losing to a made flush. Our equity in the pot is 39.8%. Pot size is 1220. Bet size is 1514. The expected value of calling the shove can simply be calculated as:

EV(call) = equity * (pot size + 2 * bet size) – bet size = $177.

So if we fold here, that is what we are costing ourselves.

I messed with the bet size to figure out how large a bet we can profitably call. It turns out the sweet spot is about $2380. So if the effective stacks had been $900 larger, our villain should have folded, unless he thought there was a chance I was bluffing, or that I didn’t in fact have a flush draw. If these probabilities are estimated to be significant, the bet would have had to be much larger to correctly fold. I suppose it is somewhat reassuring that the theory tells us not to go about folding the nuts too often, even with redraws on the board.

Situations were you can actually precisely calculate the correct action come up rarely in poker, but this was one of those cases.


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